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Risk Assets Learning to Live with Higher Yields and $100 Oil

Despite bond yields remaining at multi-decade highs and Brent crude still trading at the $100 handle, the S&P 500 notched a fresh record high on Tuesday, closing above 7,800 for the first time. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq also finished higher. What does this tell us? That risk assets are learning to live with elevated yields and oil prices, provided corporate earnings can still deliver the goods.

October 7, 2026

Weak US September Non-Farm Payrolls Cool Rate Hike Expectations

Last Friday, the U.S. non-farm payrolls data for September came in unexpectedly weak, becoming the key factor driving financial markets that day. All three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Nasdaq hitting a new intraday record high. Gold prices initially surged as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike cooled, but subsequently fell, weighed down by a strengthening U.S. dollar and high bond yields.

October 5, 2026

Bond Yields Resume Their March Higher

US bond yields have resumed their upward march this week, with the 30-year Treasury yield climbing to levels not seen since 2002, around 5.6%. The 10-year yield is trading near 5.25%, its highest mark since 2007. The move is being driven by a clear combination of forces. Oil and inflation shocks continue to push central banks toward higher interest rates.

September 30, 2026

Surging US Treasury Yields Reshape the Global Asset Anchor

Under the dual impact of surging US Treasury yields and recurring tensions in the Middle East, global financial markets are exhibiting a pattern where US stocks are under pressure, the US dollar remains firm, crude oil spiked before retreating, and gold was hit by heavy selling.

September 29, 2026

Diplomatic Window and Saudi Flows Take the Heat Out of Oil…For Now

Macroeconomic data takes a back seat this week to geopolitics, with events in the Middle East and at the UN General Assembly in New York providing the main cues for market direction. The result has been a more constructive view of the global oil supply picture than was the case in prior weeks.

September 23, 2026

The hawkish Fed fortifies the Dollar’s defenses, while Oil pullback gives Gold a respite

Global markets last week were dominated by a “Super Central Bank Week.” On September 16, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point rate hike, raising the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%, its first hike since July 2023, approved unanimously by a 12-0 vote.

September 21, 2026

Hawkish Fed Leaves Markets Recalibrating

The Federal Reserve delivered its widely anticipated 25 basis point rate hike this week, lifting the funds rate to a 3.75–4.00% target range. What caught markets off guard was the more overtly hawkish message that accompanied the decision. The updated Dot Plot projections now point to at least one further increase before year-end as the most likely path, shifting expectations away from any lingering “one-and-done” hopes.

September 17, 2026

Sticky Inflation Persists, Geopolitical Chokepoints Under Threat

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its latest August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report last Friday. The August CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, a significant widening from 0.1% in July, mainly driven by energy prices. Gasoline prices rose 3.9% month-on-month, with this single item contributing more than one-third of the overall CPI increase for the month.

September 14, 2026

US CPI: The Key Piece of the Macroeconomic Puzzle for the Fed

This Friday’s US CPI release looks set to be the decisive factor in determining whether the Federal Reserve delivers a rate hike or holds steady this month. After a headline-beating labour market report last week, attention has shifted squarely onto inflation. The Fed will be watching core CPI especially closely.

September 9, 2026

Rate-Hike Alert and Rising Yields Dominate the Week

Markets are now firmly on rate-hike alert for this month following Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s inflation-fighting rhetoric at Jackson Hole last week. The odds of a September rate increase have pushed to around 70%, up from around 35% before his speech.

September 2, 2026

Market Cues Coming Thick and Fast This Week

Directional cues for the market will be arriving thick and fast this week. US Core PCE data, Nvidia’s quarterly earnings and the Jackson Hole central bankers’ symposium are all due before the weekend, giving traders a concentrated run of high-impact events that could shape sentiment into September.

August 26, 2026

High Oil and Rising Yields Test Risk Appetite

High oil prices and climbing bond yields are not the ideal recipe for risk assets to keep ascending. Brent crude is hovering around the $90 mark as the US and Iran show little sign of closing the gap on a deal.

August 19, 2026

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