KCM Trade Chief Market Analyst Tim Waterer Delivers Market Insights Across Global Media in September
Throughout September, Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade and a member of the Forbes Advisor Australia Advisory Board, shared his market insights with leading global media on oil, US Treasury yields, the Fed's first rate hike since 2023, AI, gold and Bitcoin, appearing on NDTV Profit, BBC News, TRT World, RTHK Radio 3, Asharq Bloomberg, BFM 89.9, Ausbiz and Bloomberg Television.
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30 September | BBC News – Live TV Interview
Tim returned to Business Today to discuss the rise in US Treasury yields.
- Oil, US debt above $40 trillion and AI capex crowding out other borrowers are driving yields higher, with the 10-year near 5.25% and the 30-year near 5.6%, both at multi-decade highs.
- Higher rates can slow household spending and economic growth, and could put pressure on the AI trade if they persist.
- Brent moving back into a $70–$80 band would ease inflation, allow central banks to scale back hawkishness and bring yields lower.
30 September | TRT World – Live TV Interview
Tim delivered the global markets wrap, covering oil, bond yields and the US Core PCE preview.
- Oil fell below $100 as Saudi exports recovered through the East-West pipeline and ship-to-ship transfers, though costlier workarounds and Gulf infrastructure risks are limiting further declines.
- Multi-decade highs in Treasury yields, driven by oil, record US debt and AI competition for capital, point to slower growth ahead.
- Core PCE was expected to rise 0.2–0.3% month-on-month, with the annual rate still well above the 2% target, keeping expectations for further Fed hikes in place.
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29 September | RTHK Radio 3 – Live Radio Interview
On Money Talks, Tim discussed oil, US dollar strength and global bond yields.
- Hopes of a US-Iran deal are probably the only thing preventing Brent from moving above $110 or returning to April's roughly $120 high, while the 10-year yield sits at 5.24% and the yield curve has flattened since the Fed hike.
- The Dollar Index rose above 101 and could remain within the 99–102 range, potentially putting further pressure on emerging markets.
- Tim remains bullish on gold, expecting buyers to emerge on dips around $4,000. He expected a 25 basis point RBA hike and a US core PCE rise from 0.2% to 0.3%, with tech still likely to lead markets into Q4.
28 September | NDTV Profit – Live TV Interview
Tim joined the global markets wrap to discuss oil and energy.
- A deal to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz could see Brent return to an $80–$90 range, well above the roughly $60 seen before the conflict.
- Refined products such as diesel and LNG would likely stay more elevated because of refinery disruptions globally, including in Russia.
- Saudi LNG fields hit earlier this year could take years to return to full capacity, keeping crack spreads elevated.
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23 September | BBC News – Live TV Interview
Tim discussed Bitcoin's rally to its highest level since January.
- Bitcoin climbed above $86,000, up 8% on the week, after breaks above $75,000 and $82,000 triggered short covering, with $90,000 the next level to watch.
- Lower oil prices, settling bond yields and improving risk sentiment have improved the macro backdrop for crypto.
- Clearer SEC and CFTC guidelines are attracting institutional capital despite the Clarity Act stalling, though renewed rises in oil or yields are the main near-term risks.
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23 September | TRT World – Live TV Interview
Tim discussed bond yields, Chinese equities ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting, the US dollar and oil.
- Yields remain elevated after the Fed hike, but markets are hoping early action by the Fed and Bank of Japan means a lower terminal rate, and Brent at $75–$85 would let central banks dial back hawkishness.
- Tim expects AI and tech to lead markets towards year-end on full chip order books, while expectations for the Trump-Xi meeting are low, with progress likely limited to extending the trade truce past November.
- The dollar index is holding above 100, creating higher debt costs and imported inflation for emerging markets, though a pullback in oil or yields could take it below 100.
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22 September | Asharq Bloomberg – Live TV Interview
Tim discussed how falling oil prices and bond yields supported risk assets.
- With Brent around $100 and the 10-year yield around 4.95%, Tim said markets prefer yields below 5%, but the move doesn't yet signal a sustained downtrend.
- Only seven S&P 500 stocks hit one-year highs, compared with 30 at one-year lows, a concentration last seen in 1999, though technology remains a key market driver.
- Full AI order books and supply that can't meet demand mean any slowdown is more likely to occur in 2029–2030 than in the next two years.
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18 September | BFM 89.9 – Live Radio Interview
On The Morning Run, Tim discussed the Fed, US equities and the BOJ preview.
- Wall Street rallied after the Fed's first hike in three years, which drew 12 votes versus three two meetings earlier, with Tim favouring cash-flow-strong stocks and banks while housing and discretionary stocks look most vulnerable.
- Initial jobless claims of 196,000 and a Philly Fed reading of 37.8 show resilience, though Tim thinks the labour market can handle only one or two more hikes.
- The BOJ was expected to hike by 25 basis points to 1.25%, with the key question being whether it signals faster hikes, as a hawkish surprise could lift the yen and weigh on the Nikkei.
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17 September | NDTV Profit – Live TV Interview
Tim joined Markets Today to discuss the Fed's rate hike.
- The 12–0 vote surprised Tim given core inflation is at a five-year low, with the Fed not expecting to reach its 2% target until 2029.
- Another hike before year-end looks likely, particularly if core CPI, around 2.4%, remains in the 2.3–2.5% range, with scope for another 50 basis points.
- Tim agreed with the Fed Chair's reasons for higher yields but ranked oil as the primary driver, noting the 2-year rose after the meeting while the 10-year stayed around 5%.
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15 September | Ausbiz – Live TV Interview
Tim discussed yields, central banks, currencies and AI from the Ausbiz studio.
- The 10-year yield crossing 5% is a poor sign for risk assets, with oil the primary driver and Brent at risk of returning to April's roughly $120 if the East-West pipeline stays offline beyond September.
- Tim was leaning towards a Fed hold, and expected a more hawkish BOJ, possibly signalling three to four hikes a year.
- The dollar index is above 99 and the Australian dollar is near 72 cents on expected RBA hikes, while AI capex remains in place for the next couple of years.
15 September | TRT World – Live TV Interview
Tim discussed pressure across tech, oil and bonds ahead of the Fed decision.
- With Brent around $107 following the Saudi pipeline disruption, a multi-week outage or further damage could return it to April's $120-plus level.
- A Fed hike was priced in, but Tim thought it unusual with core CPI at its lowest since 2021, and expected a tight vote of around 7–5.
- Higher rates plus high oil prices would hit growth sectors hardest, prompting rotation into defensives like healthcare and utilities.
15 September | NDTV Profit – Live TV Interview
Tim joined a panel on the Houthi escalation, AI sentiment and the Fed meeting.
- Cold water from AI executives triggered a restrained selloff in chip names, with commissioned capex secure through 2027–2028 and the outlook murkier in 2029–2030.
- Tim leaned towards a Fed hold given core CPI is at its lowest since 2021 and a supply-driven inflation shock, expecting a tight vote of around 7–5.
- A hold would likely lift risk assets but not yields, while a hike would hinge on whether the Fed signals "one and done" or more to come.
10 September | TRT World – Live TV Interview
Tim delivered the global markets wrap on whether $100 oil will last, plus an ECB preview.
- Brent crossed $100 after a 20% weekly surge, but repeated escalation and de-escalation since February mean it isn't guaranteed to stay, with Hormuz flows at about 50% of pre-war levels.
- Weeks of triple-digit oil prices would push up global CPI, while a return to $85–$90 might barely register.
- The ECB was fully priced to hike by 25 basis points with inflation at 3.3%, with Tim expecting guidance towards higher rates for longer.
9 September | BBC News – Live TV Interview
Tim discussed the rebound in tech stocks with host Steve Lai.
- AI bubble fears have eased since July after strong earnings and guidance from big tech, drawing traders back to the sector.
- Cloud providers like Amazon and Microsoft show the strongest returns on AI capex, while new innovations such as autonomous AI agents could help monetisation more broadly.
- Full order books at companies like Nvidia through 2029–2030 leave the sector insulated from geopolitical risks, with tech the best US performer overnight.
7 September | Bloomberg Television – Live TV Interview
Tim returned to Bloomberg's Sydney studio on The Asia Trade to discuss NFP data and the US CPI preview.
- Strong NFP headline numbers were offset by 3.1% wage growth and seasonal distortions, with Tim leaning towards a Fed pause and a potential 6–6 vote split, though a hotter CPI could favour the hawks.
- Inflation is the main driver of the 10-year yield, near 4.8%, and Brent above $100 could push it towards 5% while de-escalation would pull it lower.
- Gold remains a buy as an uncertainty hedge, and Tim favours tech and chipmakers on pullbacks given Broadcom's accelerating revenue.
3 September | NDTV Profit – Live TV Interview
Tim discussed global energy risks and Indian market valuations.
- The US 10-year yield hit its highest since November 2023 on oil-driven inflation, with Brent rising from about $60 at the start of the year to about $95.
- India's dollar-inflow scheme raised over $130 billion and should stabilise the rupee, though Tim cautioned such interventions can be short-lived and lower oils are needed to draw foreign capital back.
- With oil below $100, stock pullbacks remain buying opportunities, but a move to April's roughly $120 could trigger a broader correction.
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