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KCM Trade’s chief analyst Tim Waterer's Key Market Insights from June Interviews

July 1, 2024

KCM Trade’s chief analyst Tim Waterer recently accepted exclusive interviews with three different media, namely BFM 89.9 Radio, AusBiz and RTHK, to share his unique insights on the current financial market.

BFM 89.9 Radio in Malaysia

On 10 June, Tim Waterer participated in a live interview on the 'Morning Run' program on BFM 89.9 radio in Malaysia to discuss the latest figures of the US market:

  • The exceeded expectations of 272,000 jobs added in May indicated a tight jobs market and suggested the Fed would not be ready to cut rates soon.  
  • The overall US economic health remained robust, with a strong service sector. However, rising Treasury yields could challenge the equity market.
  • The US dollar would remain strong in the short term, trading within the 104 to 105.50 range, supported by the Fed's monetary policy stance.
  • Anticipation of CPI to hold around 3.4%, indicating sticky inflation. The Fed would likely be emphasizing patience, where rate cuts potentially pushed to late 2024 or 2025.
  • Nvidia's valuation was not overvalued but not a bargain. It might be worth looking at related companies like Taiwan Semiconductor for better value in the AI supply chain.

  AusBiz in Australia Tim appeared on AusBiz on 18 June for another live interview, where he previewed the upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting for interest rate, as well as the trend of commodities, including oil and gold.

  • RBA might keep the 4.35% official cash rate constant for the rest of the year, given the uncooperative Consumer Price Index (CPI) and stagnant Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures.
  • Although Australian dollar had been losing ground against US dollar currently, it  might rise above 0.6650 and towards 0.68 or 0.69 at year end, given the Federal Reserve makes rate cuts in November.

  • Despite an impactful downturn for gold price due to China’s halting demand, there would still be a steadfast pathway when U.S rate cuts begin.
  • Oil had gained momentum on the backs of optimism about global demand, its 4% upswing were attributed to the northern hemisphere's summer energy demand and potential improvement of China's growth narrative. Oil price might move towards $84 per barrel.

 RTHK in Hong Kong  Tim also featured on RTHK's Money Talk program for a radio interview with host Steven Filby and an analyst from BNP Paribas on 25 June, covering a range of economic and market topics:

  • Concerning EU’s new tariff on Chinese EVs, certain agreement could possibly be reached to avoid trade war due to China's strong negotiating position.
  • China will be likely to achieve the 5% GDP growth target, though the property sector remained a risk. Potential liquidation of major property firms could impact consumer confidence and economic stability.
  • Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) expected to drop slightly, and it could delay the potential Fed rate cut to November or even 2025. Other central banks might move sooner based on domestic inflation.
  • The AI sector, particularly companies like Taiwan Semiconductors, would be the market highlight, and Brent crude prices would be expected to rise due to geopolitical tensions and increased demand.

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