KCM Trade Chief Market Analyst Tim Waterer Shares Market Insights Across Leading Global Media in August
Throughout August, Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade and a member of the Forbes Advisor Australia Advisory Board, continued to share his market expertise with leading international media outlets across Asia, Australia, Europe and the Middle East.
His interviews covered a broad range of topics shaping global financial markets, including the outlook for US interest rates and Treasury yields, alongside developments in gold, oil, currencies and the evolving artificial intelligence investment story. His appearances during the month included interviews with NDTV Profit, RTHK Radio 3, Ausbiz, BBC News, Asharq Bloomberg, TRT World, as well as his first-ever appearance on Bloomberg Television.
20 August | NDTV Profit – Live TV Interview
Tim joined India's premier business and finance channel on its India Market Open programme to discuss US economic measures targeting Iran, India's equity market and the changing outlook for technology stocks.
- Markets reacted relatively calmly to the proposed US economic measures targeting Iran, with oil prices remaining around the $91–$92 range as investors awaited further details and continued to focus on developments in the bond market.
- India's NIFTY50 found support around the 24,000 level, although elevated oil prices and foreign investment flows continued to create challenges as several global markets struggled to find a clear direction.
- Chip and AI stocks continued to experience sharp swings as investors assessed valuations and the sustainability of the current cycle, with markets showing greater tolerance for capital expenditure offering a shorter path to returns.
20 August | RTHK Radio 3 – Live Radio Interview
The Money Talks programme explored the Federal Reserve outlook, the US Treasury's bond buyback programme, the yen and developments in AI and robotics.
- The latest FOMC minutes carried less weight than usual after weaker jobs, inflation and retail sales data emerged following the meeting, with the upcoming data releases expected to play a greater role in shaping the September decision.
- The US Treasury's bond buyback programme could provide temporary relief for pressure on longer-term yields, although underlying inflation and debt concerns remain important drivers of the elevated yield environment.
- Another move towards the 163–164 level against the dollar could increase expectations of further intervention to support the yen.
18 August | Ausbiz – Live TV Interview
The Ausbiz studio interview in Sydney covered the Federal Reserve outlook, oil prices, currencies, gold, technology stocks and the Australian economy.
- Softer US jobs, inflation and retail sales figures shifted market attention beyond the FOMC minutes and towards upcoming policy decisions, particularly the potential for changes in the number of dissenting votes.
- Oil remains a major risk for inflation and broader financial markets, with a sustained move back towards $100 per barrel likely to place additional pressure on risk sentiment and central bank policy expectations.
- Gold has regained bullish momentum after breaking out of its previous range, while healthy order books and longer-term contracts continue to support the outlook for chipmakers despite ongoing concerns over AI valuations.
14 August | Bloomberg Television – Live TV Interview
KCM Trade made its debut appearance on Bloomberg Television after an invitation to the network's Sydney studio to discuss Treasuries, artificial intelligence, gold and the outlook for the yen.
- The 10-year Treasury yield remained elevated despite softer CPI and PPI figures and a weak jobs report, suggesting that bond markets were increasingly focused on longer-term concerns surrounding US debt and inflation.
- Strong earnings from major technology companies helped ease some concerns surrounding AI valuations, while healthy order books left chip manufacturers more exposed to production capacity constraints than near-term demand risks.
- Central bank demand and potential further weakness in the US dollar continue to support gold, with a Bank of Japan rate hike combined with a US policy hold potentially creating more favourable conditions for both the yen and the precious metal.
13 August | BBC News – Live TV Interview
The BBC News interview examined the growing popularity of prediction markets and whether recent momentum can justify increasingly lofty valuations.
- A $40 billion valuation appeared ambitious but was supported to some extent by strong recent revenue growth, with the bigger question being whether the momentum generated during the FIFA World Cup can be sustained.
- Participation could naturally decline following the World Cup, making user retention and the ability to attract participants to other sporting, financial and political events critical for long-term growth.
- Regulatory uncertainty remains a significant risk as the boundaries between prediction markets and gambling continue to face legal and policy challenges that could affect future expansion.
11 August | Asharq Bloomberg – Live TV Interview
The interview previewed key US inflation data, discussed the outlook for gold and assessed the prospects for equities and energy markets.
- Weak labour market data increased the pressure on the Federal Reserve, while a softer inflation reading could strengthen the case for keeping interest rates unchanged. Conversely, an upside surprise could quickly revive expectations of higher rate.
- Gold benefited from a weaker US dollar and continued central bank demand after breaking above its previous $3,900–$4,200 range, with $4,500 identified as the next potential target.
- Technology and AI stocks are expected to remain major drivers of the S&P 500, supported by strong corporate earnings, while the outlook for oil and energy stocks remains heavily dependent on geopolitical developments and the possibility of a peace agreement.
10 August | TRT World – Live TV Interview
The discussion focused on the positive start to the week for Asian equities, the implications of softer US jobs data and the outlook for oil prices.
- Asian equities played catch-up following gains on Wall Street, with softer US jobs data helping technology stocks regain momentum and increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve could pause at its next meeting.
- The unexpected fall of 23,000 in US jobs, compared with expectations for growth of around 85,000, significantly reduced expectations of a September rate hike and shifted attention towards upcoming inflation data.
- Oil prices could move higher with each day that passes without a geopolitical agreement, although hopes for a deal and the release of stockpiles have continued to help contain the market for now.
6 August | NDTV Profit – Live TV Interview
The discussion covered gold's rally, coordinated efforts to support the yen, oil prices and the risks surrounding the global carry trade.
- Lower oil prices, a weaker US dollar and moderation in Treasury yields helped gold break out of months of range-bound trading, with further declines in oil and the dollar potentially opening the way towards $4,500.
- Coordinated efforts by the US and Japan to support the yen highlighted the delicate balancing act facing policymakers, who are seeking to strengthen the Japanese currency without allowing excessive weakness in the US dollar.
- A disorderly unwind of the yen carry trade remains a major risk for global markets, particularly if changes in the US-Japan yield differential begin to reduce the attractiveness of borrowing cheaply in yen to invest in higher-yielding assets.
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