Market News

The market finds itself in a state of ‘tariff limbo’ this week, following a Supreme Court ruling that struck down tariffs imposed under the IEEPA, raising more questions than answers about how Trump’s tariff strategy will unfold in 2026.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has made a spritely start to 2026, rallying around 5% year-to-date against the greenback to levels near 0.70. With Australian inflation running hot at 3.8% (per the latest December 2025 data), well above the RBA's 2–3% target band, the central bank had little choice but to raise interest rates—which it did, hiking by 25 bps on Tuesday to 3.85%. This yield advantage is favourable for the AUD, especially with the RBA potentially not done yet. Riding interest rates higher, there could be more upside from current levels given the differing trajectories of Australian and US interest rates. While there is a path higher for the AUD if rates continue to rise, the currency is highly confidence-sensitive, so any bouts of general risk aversion could trigger pullbacks.

The oil market in 2026 is defined by a tug-of-war between structural oversupply from robust non-OPEC growth and geopolitical flashpoints that can generate sharp, headline-driven volatility. While fundamentals lean bearish with inventories likely building, sudden disruptions or resolutions in key regions could produce rapid price swings in either direction. For traders, this environment offers frequent short-term trading setups around news catalysts, provided risk management remains tight.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has made a spritely start to 2026, rallying around 5% year-to-date against the greenback to levels near 0.70. With Australian inflation running hot at 3.8% (per the latest December 2025 data), well above the RBA's 2–3% target band, the central bank had little choice but to raise interest rates—which it did, hiking by 25 bps on Tuesday to 3.85%. This yield advantage is favourable for the AUD, especially with the RBA potentially not done yet. Riding interest rates higher, there could be more upside from current levels given the differing trajectories of Australian and US interest rates. While there is a path higher for the AUD if rates continue to rise, the currency is highly confidence-sensitive, so any bouts of general risk aversion could trigger pullbacks.

Gold and silver prices, having already chalked up fresh highs this week, weren’t in dire need of fresh catalysts. But they got one anyway in the form of the dollar's latest depreciation. The USD fell nearly 10% in 2025, and 2026 is following a similar path, with the DXY (Dollar Index) slipping toward the 96 level. The latest slump in the greenback has been driven by mutual interest from US and Japanese authorities in stabilising the yen through dollar sales, alongside President Trump’s apparent glee at seeing the US currency decline.

Silver has surged over 30% year-to-date, rising from $70 to over $90, outpacing gold, which gained more than 7% YTD from $4,340 to $4,670. After lagging behind gold for most of 2025, silver’s momentum picked up sharply in last November, highlighting a growing divergence in the pace of movement between the two metals.

We haven’t yet made it through the first month of 2026, and already trade wars and tariffs are giving financial markets grief. With Trump not seeing eye-to-eye with his European NATO allies over the US’s ambitions for Greenland, the threats of additional 10% to 25% tariffs on certain European countries have delivered a fresh – and rather unwanted – dose of uncertainty for traders.

KCM Trade, a global leading Contract for Difference (CFD) broker, announced the launch of its proprietary research report series with the publication of its inaugural report, “An Annual Review of Global Financial Markets 2025”. The initiative represents a strategic expansion of the firm’s offering, expanding beyond trade execution to deliver structured, forward-looking market analysis to clients and the wider global investment community.